Our Climate is Changing: How The Lands Council is ReactingBy Mike Petersen, Executive Director
Thinking about global warming in ten-degree weather, with snow piling up outside, tends to put things in perspective. We humans have a hard time thinking in the thousand or million year cycles that climate operates. Our experience is focused on what happened in the past season, or, at the most, in the past generation. Yet, a conversation I had recently with Philip Mote, PhD. who works at the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group, and who shared in the recent Nobel Prize with Al Gore, was sobering. Philip said climate change is one of the most studied scientific topics ever. He said the 90 percent certainty that humans are causing rapid climate change is a level that is rarely seen in the academic world. Philip also says the only uncertainty is the extent of change, which is why most climate models have a range of temperature increases rather than a specific number.
The measurements from almost every station worldwide show our Earth is getting warmer and that the trend will accelerate. Temperature is projected to increase in the Pacific Northwest about 0.5 degrees F per decade on average, a rate three times faster than the average rate of change observed in the region during the 20th century. By 2040, for example, the average annual temperature will increase by 1.4 to 4.6 degrees F. This will occur across all seasons, with winter nighttime temperatures rising the most.
Warmer temperatures mean more precipitation will fall as rain, not snow, and more snow will melt earlier in the spring. Many climate models project small increases in precipitation during the winter in our region. Our regions rivers, whose watersheds are in a mixed rain and snow transient zone, will have increased winter flows, reduced summer flows, and a shift of peak runoff earlier in the year – much as we have been seeing for the past decade in the Spokane River.
Snowpack in the Pacific Northwest has declined at low and mid elevations, with an observed decline of about 40% in the Cascades at low elevations. It is important to note that this doesn't mean a decline every year, but on average. So we may still enjoy winters like 2007-2008 where we can ski and sled in town and complain about the lack of snowplowing.
In cites such as Spokane and Coeur d'Alene, more rainfall and more extreme storm events mean more storm water runoff. As water flows over the land, it carries with it all pollutants left on the ground or flowing off paved or hard surfaces (car oils, antifreeze, brake lining dust, pet and farm waste, fertilizers and pesticides, etc). We can expect more sewer overflows and more strain on wastewater treatment systems.
In the forests, the wildfire season is expected to be longer and more severe. With warmer winters, pest populations can reproduce longer with less winter die-offs-so pest populations can boom. Faster runoff can cause more flooding, increased erosion, and give an opening to expansion of weed populations. On the positive side, the growing season is likely to be extended and local food production may benefit.
The Lands Council is working in several areas to help our region lower its carbon footprint and adapt to expected climate changes. The Lands Council is part of the freshwater Prevention/Adaptation Work Group that was charged with providing recommendations to Washington Governor Gregoire's Climate Advisory Team. We helped insert language about restoring natural flows in streams throughout the state, as well as providing incentives for urban and agricultural water conservation. We are helping start the Northwest Climate Change Center, which will focus on helping businesses and communities adapt to climate change as well as the liquid fuel crisis. Transportation, green building, and land use will be major issues in our region as the need to reduce carbon dioxide and adapt to higher oil prices create a need to shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
The Lands Council is also assisting the City of Spokane with sustainability issues and its climate action plan. As one of the nations "Cool Cities", Mayor Verner has taken on the commitment to decrease carbon emissions and she wants create a plan with tangible action steps.
According to the experts, the impacts to our regions forests and rivers from global warming will be profound. The Lands Council will continue to play a leadership role in shaping policies and action plans to ensure that tangible steps are taken commensurate with the urgency of this issue.
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